Why Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Struggles Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an impending US-Russia presidential summit have been overstated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump said he planned to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The frequently changing summit is another development in Trump's attempts to broker an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt recently to celebrate that truce deal, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a long record of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, including his decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, actually, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an deal.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to retreat in the wake of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his ability to meet and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.
The Russian president may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia called Trump who then promoted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The next day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
But the president of Ukraine later commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he stated.
So, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially urging Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has finally settled on calling for a truce along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, Trump vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, saying that ending the war is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.