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For a brief period, Donald Trump seemed to adopt a strong approach on Ukraine. After making warnings of "significant ramifications" in August should Putin continued blocking peace negotiations, he finally introduced considerable sanctions on Russia's biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action seriously hindered Putin's ability to finance his military invasion in Ukraine.

Yet, via his recently unveiled comprehensive peace initiative for Ukraine, reportedly created by both nations' representatives excluding Ukrainian or EU participation, he has seemingly gone back to his favorable to Russia stance.

Favoring Invasion

The former president's initiative would essentially reward Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while placing the country's political freedom in jeopardy. Despite ringing statements that "The nation's independence will be confirmed", significant aspects of the plan in reality weaken that very independence. This constitutes a Russian ideal would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his real-estate experience, Trump persists to treat the situation in Ukraine as a basic territorial dispute, as if ceding Russia a part of Ukraine's territory will please the leader. However, Putin's war is not simply about dominating a destroyed swath of industrial-devastated territory in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's obvious intention to weaken it so it ceases to serves as an appealing example for the Russia's population of the responsible leadership that Putin's increasing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Territorial Giveaways

While keeping in place the already divided Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's initiative would force Ukraine to surrender the whole Donetsk province. Aside from rewarding the Russian Federation with area that its troops have been unsuccessful to occupy in exceeding a decade of warfare, this surrender would leave Ukrainian defensive positions severely weakened.

This region is the place of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the fortified protective structures that represent a critical impediment to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these fortifications, leaving Russian forces a clear route to Kyiv should he eventually choose to resume the hostilities.

Defense Limitations

Furthermore, in a step that would make renewed fighting simpler for Russia, Trump would mandate the nation to reduce the scale of its troops from their existing large number personnel to a maximum of 600,000. Significantly, the plan places no similar restrictions on Russian forces.

Apparently as a accommodation to Russia's attempts to portray Ukraine's democratically elected government as Nazis, Trump's proposal asserts: "Any extremist ideology and practices must be rejected and banned." As if to underscore this aspect, it requires that "Ukraine will hold political contests in three months" of a peace deal. However, the proposal imposes no condition that Putin endanger his authoritarian rule by holding votes in his own country.

Protection Assurances

Admittedly, the initiative has Russia pledge not to "enter other states" and to "establish in law its stance of non-aggression towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". However considering that the Russian leadership has violated comparable agreements in the previous instances – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia committed to honor Ukraine's borders in exchange for giving up its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow agreed to a truce and a restoration of occupied areas in the region to Ukrainian control – how should anyone believe this commitment on this occasion?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on western security guarantees. While the initiative threatens a "immediate unified armed reaction" if Russia resume its aggression, and states that "Ukraine will receive dependable protection assurances", the specifics include vague to troubling. The proposal would not just block Ukraine Nato membership but also prohibit alliance nations from stationing military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thereby blocking the reassurance force, likely led by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to stop Russia from replenishing his reduced troops, rearming, and reinvading.

International Response

An additional parallel deal reportedly would offer the nation with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any future "serious, planned, and ongoing military assault" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "would be considered as an act of war endangering the peace and security of the allied countries." This indicates a defense action. But unlike a strong Ukrainian military – the nation's most reliable deterrent against renewed hostilities – the success of the parallel accord would depend on the commitment of Western powers, such as the US administration, to act with force to Russia's hostilities, something they have {not