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As the existentially challenged Tories gathers in its conference city for its annual party conference, it has much to ponder regarding its next steps. It’s not even clear if a clear direction remains open. We are in tough times for a governing group that now has almost nothing, if anything, fresh or distinctive to say to the public.

What Could Have Been

Things could have turned out vastly better if concrete steps had been made on an policy focus that is important for people across the country: Social mobility. However Boris Johnson’s government lacked the basic understanding on how to turn his zeitgeisty rhetoric on social mobility into policy reality. Over twenty-four months after the general election, it debated what the term even meant.

I found it bizarre, because I had clearly defined for Johnson what levelling up signified when we initially discussed about it during his leadership campaign. The expression was a term I developed and used at the DfE to talk about equal opportunity. It served as our core mission, and its definition is clear: levelling up is the method by which we achieve fair chances – not through reducing chances away from those who are already advantaged, but rather by extending opportunities to those that don’t.

The Core Concept

The other key ministry expression we used, “talent is spread evenly throughout the nation, but opportunity is not”, again was a deliberate expression, reflecting the two halves of a social mobility strategy. Initially, talent spread evenly but not cultivated evenly through our schools and colleges. Second, chances not distributed fairly by employers or our economy. As a result, education and business were key to achieving better life chances. This was an priority about the community framework of our country – fostering people’s potential and connecting them to prospects.

The Actual Outcome

What did the social mobility agenda evolve into under Johnson’s Conservatives? A towns fund administered out of the DLUHC. Hanging baskets and redeveloped traffic systems. A government strategy was published almost thirty-six months after the leadership change, which saw existing policy approaches repackaged under the new levelling up banner.

As a result, a comprehensive equal opportunity plan went unpursued, as well as all the change that it could have inspired – in funding, business, economic policy, taxation and in place-making. And, of course, in education, including a tertiary education that has become a punchbag for politicians of all stripes – despite the fact that it remains the most powerful engine of life improvement for individuals from less privileged homes, personally, this country has had in recent decades. Maybe the primary source of equal opportunity, operating at scale.

The Importance of Aspiration

Ambition is vital for our country to succeed. For hope to exist, there needs to be a realistic expectation that effort and reward are related; that if people aspire, they can succeed. For all administrations, being able to foster a outlook of positivity about the years ahead is important. Research by the Institute for Policy Research at the university and others, newly available, showed that the education department’s targeted regions I launched while in office – community-focused methods to boosting academic achievement – led to young people in those areas being up to 18 percentage points more positive about their life ahead than those in equivalent locations without these initiatives in place. The data shows: just making an authentic start on equal chance initiatives can rapidly and effectively change how people view their prospects.

Lost Potential

Oblivious to this, and in the middle of its new leader election, in that period, the Tory administration ended the initiatives. Why would anyone in those areas vote for a political group that took that action? The opportunity areas policy is one example of what might have become a transformative Conservative government agenda on levelling up, but that chance was completely wasted. Strategies such as this can inspire hope and aspiration. On the other hand, as the ruling party discovered, breaking the promise of equal opportunity is the costliest mistake any leadership can make. Voters punished the leadership for its ineffectiveness but, above all, for its broken promises on social mobility.

Today’s Political Reality

Currently the responsibility on equal opportunity and equality of opportunity has been transferred to a Labour government. The old slogan has been cast off. The current administration has its own public messaging of “breaking down the barriers to opportunity”. The party that is increasingly displacing the failing Conservative party, Reform UK, also has its own terminology – “economic renewal”. This expression to talk about fresh prospects in communities like the one I was raised in, in my hometown. It suggests that an historical manufacturing base can be reborn into an industrial future.

For voters, it must seem like a déjà vu experience. Similar challenge, different language. Yet, currently, little improvement.

Lessons for the Future

Whether the government and opposition want to escape the same fate, each group should take lessons from the Tories’ mistakes on levelling up; that fair chance language is one thing, but effective implementation of more equal results is significantly more difficult. Britain’s endemically weak social mobility remains the key issue for our country, with young people unable to get a decent career start, those putting in effort in full-time jobs with few results after the living expenses are met, and people across the country without any genuine belief their children will be able to do advance in life than they have.

Elected officials can discuss equal chances repeatedly. However, which party has the political group that has the thorough strategy on life chances? I observe no such party. Whichever party succeeds initially, prevails. Not only for their organization, but, crucially, for a entire nation that has never needed equal access so badly.